Who's gaining ground in Alberta?
Polls are not predictions, but they are useful signals. This page keeps the latest public numbers readable: who leads, how close it is, and whether the trend is actually moving.
- Leader
- Tie
- Margin
- 0 points
- Poll age
- 19 days
Sources checked 1h ago
Mainstreet · Oct 16, 2026 · n=825
Alberta.io polling average
All pollsUCP ahead by 0.6 points
| Poll | Date | UCP | NDP | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mainstreet | Oct 16 | 43 | 43 | 27% |
| Abacus Data | Oct 13 | 47 | 42 | 26% |
| Pollara | Oct 9 | 46 | 50 | 24% |
| Leger | Oct 3 | 47 | 45 | 16% |
| Janet Brown | Sep 15 | 45 | 45 | 7% |
How the average works
Each pollster’s latest poll from the last 60 days counts once (120 days if fewer than 3 pollsters published). Polls are weighted by age, with weight halving every 14 days, and by the square root of sample size relative to 1,000 (capped at 1.5×; 800 assumed when not published). There is no adjustment for differences between pollsters. Polls measure opinion when they were taken; they are not forecasts.
Trend Line
Smoothed five-poll average for the two consistently reported parties.
Stay or separate?
Mainstreet · Published Oct 17, 2026 · n=825
Explicitly stated as 65.5%
How the leaders are rated
A single pollster snapshot; approval questions should not be averaged across firms.
Leger · Published Oct 7, 2026 · n=1,001
The issues competing for attention
Latest comparable public survey. These are not vote shares, and totals can exceed 100%.
Leger · Published Oct 8, 2026 · n=1,001
Recent Polls
Source links open pollster tables or public releases.
The next Alberta provincial election is scheduled for October 18, 2027, under the fixed-date law; the premier can still call one earlier. The legislature has 87 seats, so a majority needs 44.
Sources: 338Canada, Pollster releases. Duplicate listings of the same poll are merged, preferring the pollster's own release. Compiled by Alberta.io, a service of Avenue.io Inc.; check the source before relying on a figure.
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