Who's gaining ground in Alberta?
Polls are not predictions, but they are useful signals. This page keeps the latest public numbers readable: who leads, how close it is, and whether the trend is actually moving.
- Leader
- Tie
- Margin
- 0 points
- Poll age
- 15 days
Sources checked 6h ago
Janet Brown · Sep 15, 2026 · n=1,200
Alberta.io polling average
All pollsUCP ahead by 5.4 points
| Poll | Date | UCP | NDP | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janet Brown | Sep 15 | 45 | 45 | 46% |
| Abacus Data | Sep 7 | 52 | 39 | 28% |
| Research Co. | Aug 25 | 46 | 43 | 13% |
| Leger | Aug 22 | 51 | 41 | 13% |
How the average works
Each pollster’s latest poll from the last 60 days counts once (120 days if fewer than 3 pollsters published). Polls are weighted by age, with weight halving every 14 days, and by the square root of sample size relative to 1,000 (capped at 1.5×; 800 assumed when not published). There is no adjustment for differences between pollsters. Polls measure opinion when they were taken; they are not forecasts.
Trend Line
Smoothed five-poll average for the two consistently reported parties.
Stay or separate?
Janet Brown · Sep 15, 2026 · n=1,200
Tracked from the 338Canada sovereignty table and original pollster links.
How the leaders are rated
A single pollster snapshot; approval questions should not be averaged across firms.
Ipsos · Published Jun 7, 2026 · n=600
The issues competing for attention
Latest comparable public survey. These are not vote shares, and totals can exceed 100%.
Leger · Published Mar 1, 2026 · n=1,001
Recent Polls
Source links open pollster tables or public releases.
The next Alberta provincial election is scheduled for October 18, 2027, under the fixed-date law; the premier can still call one earlier. The legislature has 87 seats, so a majority needs 44.
Data sources
- 338Canada : Index of published Alberta polls.
- Pollster releases : Vote-intention polls from Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Janet Brown, Léger, Mainstreet, Research Co. and others.
Duplicate listings of the same poll are merged, preferring the pollster's own release. Compiled by Alberta.io, a service of Avenue.io Inc. Figures can lag or differ from the source; check the source before relying on them. Downloads and feeds